ROADWORTHY

Treating MOT failure like a probability of default.

Statistical analysis of UK DVSA MOT data: which cars fail, at what age, and why.

About

I'm Shaami, an analytics engineer with a credit risk and physics background.

In credit risk, you estimate the chance a borrower defaults as the loan ages. This project applies the same thinking to cars: the MOT test is the default event, and vehicle age plays the role of loan age.

On this site

  • Failure model

    Live

    At 13 years old, an E46 3 Series fails about 43% of MOTs. An F30 fails about 26%. First chart live; predictive model in progress.

  • Lamborghini database

    Live

    Every UK-registered Lamborghini in the MOT data, queryable with SQL in your browser.

  • Clocking detection

    Planned

    Flagging odometer rollbacks in MOT mileage histories, using rules modelled on first-line lending fraud checks.

  • Marques

    Planned

    Test statistics for specialist makes.

  • Data

    Planned

    The published datasets and how they were built.